Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 0.7 percent lower and continued that trend in early week trading and fell 2 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week but were down 1.5 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 57.3 cents/liter (216.9 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 15.3 percent higher but are down 2 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 55.71 cents/liter (210.89 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 1.5 percent to 61.73 cents/liter (233.67 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -6.02 cents/liter (-22.78 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 10.9 percent last week but stabilized in early week trading to gain 0.6 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at -5.76 cents/liter (-21.82 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply lower last week but were mixed through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 1.9 percent while Toluene was up 0.3 percent, and Xylene was up 1.4 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 73.68 cents/liter (278.91 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 17.97 cents/liter (68.02 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly higher last week and continued that trend in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 1.5 percent to start the week while FOB Prices for 87 CBOB and 87 conventional gasoline are up 1.4 and up 1.7 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 2.2 percent higher at $63.22/barrel while Brent futures are up 2.3 percent to $67/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 7 percent lower on average this week with offers for the U.S. PNW to South Korea seeing the largest gains (up 2 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico saw the largest declines and is down 31 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 11 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 2 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 5 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 2 percent lower than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as both freight rates and FOB ethanol offers have moved below last week’s values. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 2.1 percent this week and are up 6.9 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $816.08/MT this week, down 3 percent from the prior week but up 4.4 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $773.37/MT and are down 1.5 percent from last week but are up 5.9 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 1.7 percent from last week.
