Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 8.6 percent lower and continued that decline in early week trading and fell 2.2 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week and were down 0.3 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 53.25 cents/liter (201.57 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 6.4 percent lower and are down 1 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 50.61 cents/liter (191.56 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 3.5 percent to 58.44 cents/liter (221.22 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -7.83 cents/liter (-29.65 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 0.2 percent last week and retreated further in early week trading to fall 0.8 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 9.62 cents/liter (36.43 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week but had a firmer tone through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 0.9 percent while Toluene was up 2.9 percent, and Xylene was down 0.1 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 78.08 cents/liter (295.56 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 27.47 cents/liter (104 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly lower last week and were mixed in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 0.7 percent to start the week while FOB Prices for 87 CBOB and 87 conventional gasoline are up 0.7 and down 1.2 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 0.1 percent lower at $58.89/barrel while Brent futures are down 0.4 percent to $62.51/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 0.1 percent higher on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the West Coast of Central America seeing the largest gains (up 20 percent). Freight from Brazil to China saw the largest declines and is down 14 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 4 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 1 percent increase. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 7 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 7 percent lower than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as lower FOB offers for ethanol have offset gains in liquid tanker freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 4.8 percent this week and are up 12.5 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $724.17/MT this week, down 6.5 percent from the prior week but up 7.7 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $708.97/MT and are down 5.4 percent from last week but are up 12.4 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 3 percent from last week.
