Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 1.8 percent higher but reversed course in early week trading to fall 2.6 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were stronger to end last week but were down 0.9 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 52.96 cents/liter (200.48 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 5.5 percent higher but are down 1.2 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 51.42 cents/liter (194.65 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 0.4 percent to 60.93 cents/liter (230.64 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -9.51 cents/liter (-35.99 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 6.4 percent last week but stabilized in early week trading to fall 0.3 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 12.52 cents/liter (47.39 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week but were steady/higher through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 2.7 percent while Toluene was down 0.1 percent, and Xylene was down 0.3 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 78.32 cents/liter (296.46 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 26.89 cents/liter (101.81 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly higher last week but turned lower in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 1.9 percent to start the week while FOB Prices for 87 CBOB and 87 conventional gasoline are down 0.5 and up 0.7 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 0.1 percent higher at $60.13/barrel while Brent futures are down 0.1 percent to $64.31/barrel, from Friday to Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 2 percent lower on average this week with offers for Brazil to China seeing the largest gains (up 3 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to South Brazil saw the largest declines and is down 10 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 4 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 1 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are up 2 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 25 percent higher than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as both freight rates and FOB ethanol offers have moved below last week’s values. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 0.3 percent this week and are up 12.8 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $752.97/MT this week, down 1.5 percent from the prior week but up 11.6 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $725.74/MT and are down 0.3 percent from last week but are up 14.4 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 1 percent from last week.
