Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 1 percent higher but retreated in early week trading to fell 3.6 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week but were down 0.3 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 56.87 cents/liter (215.29 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 1.9 percent lower and are down 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 55.38 cents/liter (209.65 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 0.5 percent to 61.27 cents/liter (231.94 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -5.89 cents/liter (-22.3 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 3.9 percent last week but were steady in early week trading to gain 0.1 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 5.77 cents/liter (21.84 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week but strengthened through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 0.7 percent while Toluene was up 0.9 percent, and Xylene was up 0.9 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 77.18 cents/liter (292.15 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 21.8 cents/liter (82.5 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly lower last week but are steady/higher in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 3 percent to start the week while FOB Prices for 87 CBOB and 87 conventional gasoline are up 1.9 and down 0.2 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 2.8 percent higher at $62.57/barrel while Brent futures are up 2.7 percent to $66.25/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 3 percent lower on average this week but offers for the U.S. Gulf to Saudi Arabia saw the largest gains (up 7 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to South Brazil saw the largest declines and is down 11 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 3 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 5 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are up 1 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 3 percent lower than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mixed this week as changes in freight rates and FOB ethanol offers have largely offset one another. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 0.2 percent this week and are up 20.6 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $794.71/MT this week, down 2.7 percent from the prior week but up 14.2 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $769.97/MT and are up 0.1 percent from last week and are up 20.2 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 0.4 percent from last week.
