Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 4.6 percent lower but erased that weakness in early week trading and rose 5.2 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week but were up 0.4 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 52.42 cents/liter (198.44 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 10.4 percent lower but are up 0.1 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 49.43 cents/liter (187.12 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 1.1 percent to 59.21 cents/liter (224.15 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -9.78 cents/liter (-37.04 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 2.2 percent last week and continued that trend in early week trading to fall 0.4 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 10.61 cents/liter (40.17 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week and maintained that action through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 0.1 percent while Toluene was up 0.3 percent, and Xylene was down 0.2 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 78.21 cents/liter (296.06 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 28.78 cents/liter (108.95 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly lower last week and were mixed in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 0.9 percent to start the week while FOB Prices for 87 CBOB and 87 conventional gasoline are down 0.1 and up 1 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 2.1 percent higher at $58.36/barrel while Brent futures are up 1.9 percent to $62.43/barrel, from Friday to Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 1 percent higher on average this week with offers for Brazil to China seeing the largest gains (up 10 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico saw the largest declines and is down 15 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 2 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 0.1 percent increase. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are up 5 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 3 percent higher than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mixed this week with lower FOB prices from the Gulf combining with freight rate reductions to pull C&F values 1.4 percent lower, on average. Conversely, CNF offers from the PNW and Brazil are higher due to gains in FOB prices and liquid tanker freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 2 percent this week and are up 14.4 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $734.23/MT this week, up 1.5 percent from the prior week and up 11 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $695.44/MT and are down 1.1 percent from last week but are up 13.1 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 2 percent from last week.
