Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 3.1 percent lower and extended that trend for the third straight week in early week trading to fall 2.8 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were weaker to end last week but were down 1.1 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 48.9 cents/liter (185.11 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 11.4 percent lower and are down 1.2 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 45.6 cents/liter (172.62 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 0.3 percent to 60.19 cents/liter (227.85 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -14.59 cents/liter (-55.24 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 12 percent last week and maintained that bearish trend in early week trading to fall 9.1 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 5.69 cents/liter (21.54 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week but were mostly lower through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 1.3 percent while Toluene was down 6.9 percent, and Xylene was down 6.1 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 70.18 cents/liter (265.65 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 24.58 cents/liter (93.04 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly lower last week and retreated further in early week trade. RBOB futures are down 3.1 percent to start the week while FOB Prices for 87 CBOB and 87 conventional gasoline are down 5.4 and 0.1 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 2 percent lower at $56.28/barrel while Brent futures are down 1.9 percent to $59.96/barrel, from Friday to Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 2 percent higher on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico seeing the largest gains (up 8 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the West Coast of Central America saw the largest declines and is down 4 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 3 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 1 percent increase. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are up 4 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 15 percent higher than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly lower this week as lower FOB offers for ethanol have offset gains in liquid tanker freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are down 2.7 percent this week and are down 0.8 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $665.88/MT this week, down 3.8 percent from the prior week but up 0.7 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $646.75/MT and are down 1.9 percent from last week but are up 0.8 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 0.8 percent from last week.
