Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 4.3 percent higher and continued that strength in early week trading to rise 2.6 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were stronger to end last week but were up 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 52.66 cents/liter (199.33 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 1.3 percent lower but have largely reserved those losses in early week trade as they rose 1.2 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 51.05 cents/liter (193.25 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 2.3 percent to 61.08 cents/liter (231.21 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -10.03 cents/liter (-37.96 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 5.1 percent last week and extended that move in early week trading to gain 0.5 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 13.1 cents/liter (49.57 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week and continued that trend through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 0.4 percent while Toluene was down 0.6 percent, and Xylene was up 0.4 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 78.26 cents/liter (296.23 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 27.2 cents/liter (102.98 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly higher last week but were mixed in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 3.4 percent to start the week while FOB Prices for 87 CBOB and 87 conventional gasoline are down 1 and 0.1 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 1.3 percent higher at $60.54/barrel while Brent futures are up 1.7 percent to $64.68/barrel, from Friday to Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 5 percent higher on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico seeing the largest gains (up 38 percent). Freight from Brazil to China saw the largest declines and is down 8 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 11 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 5 percent increase. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 5 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 15 percent higher than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as both freight rates and FOB ethanol offers have climbed higher. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 3.8 percent this week and are up 11.8 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $760.05/MT this week, up 2.6 percent from the prior week and up 13.5 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $722.37/MT and are up 3.6 percent from last week and are up 14.3 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 1.4 percent from last week.
