Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 1.4 percent higher but pulled back sharply in early week trading and fell 3.1 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were higher to end last week but were down 0.8 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 52.75 cents/liter (199.68 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 6.9 percent lower and are down 0.8 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 50.44 cents/liter (190.95 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were lower last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 0.1 percent to 59.28 cents/liter (224.41 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -8.84 cents/liter (-33.46 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 1.3 percent last week but erased those losses in early week trading to gain 1 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has increased from last week’s report and stands at 10 cents/liter (37.86 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply higher last week but were weaker through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was down 1.5 percent while Toluene was down 0.2 percent, and Xylene was down 0.1 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 77.83 cents/liter (294.63 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread widened last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 27.39 cents/liter (103.68 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly lower last week but were mixed in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 1.2 percent to start the week while FOB Prices for 87 CBOB and 87 conventional gasoline are down 0.5 and up 0.2 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 1.8 percent lower at $60.38/barrel while Brent futures are down 1.7 percent to $64.06/barrel, from Friday to Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 1 percent lower on average this week with offers for Brazil to India seeing the largest gains (up 8 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico saw the largest declines and is down 13 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 3 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 1 percent decline. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are up 3 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 7 percent higher than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as higher FOB offers for ethanol offset lower freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 0.4 percent this week and are up 13.7 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $730.23/MT this week, down 1 percent from the prior week but up 11.3 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $707.5/MT and are up 0.7 percent from last week and are up 12.5 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 1.1 percent from last week.
