Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 0.5 percent higher and were firmer still in early week trading and rose 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week but were up 2 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 57.09 cents/liter (216.1 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 12.5 percent higher and are up 2.3 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 55.84 cents/liter (211.37 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are up in early week trading, rising 2.5 percent to 63.2 cents/liter (239.22 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has widened from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -7.36 cents/liter (-27.85 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices fell 7 percent last week but stabilized through Tuesday’s trading to end 0.1 percent lower than Friday’s close. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at -5.84 cents/liter (-22.09 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were mixed last week but were steady/higher through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 0.3 percent while Toluene was up 0.5 percent, and Xylene was up 0.9 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 74.44 cents/liter (281.79 cents/gallon), up from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 18.6 cents/liter (70.42 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were mostly higher last week and continued that trend in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 2.3 percent to start the week while FOB Prices for 87 CBOB and 87 conventional gasoline are up 2.1 and up 1.4 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 2.3 percent higher at $64.12/barrel while Brent futures are up 1.6 percent to $68.08/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 2 percent lower on average this week with offers for Brazil to China seeing the largest gains (up 8 percent). Freight from the U.S. Gulf to the East Coast of Mexico saw the largest declines and is down 29 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is down 5 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 1 percent increase. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are up 4 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 1 percent higher than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as higher FOB offers for ethanol offset lower freight rates. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 0.6 percent this week and are up 11.8 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $828.41/MT this week, up 1.4 percent from the prior week and up 9.9 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $774.91/MT and are up 1.1 percent from last week and are up 11.9 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are up 1.8 percent from last week.
