Ethanol, Fuels and Co-Product Pricing
Market Outlook: U.S. ethanol prices ended last week 2.1 percent lower and pulled back further in early week trading and fell 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s close. Midwest wholesale rack ethanol prices were lower to end last week but were up 1.1 percent through Tuesday’s market close to their last quote of 50.82 cents/liter (192.39 cents/gallon).
FOB Houston ethanol prices finished last week 2.2 percent lower but are up 0.6 percent through Tuesday’s trading from Friday’s close. FOB Houston ethanol prices are quoted at 48.82 cents/liter (184.8 cents/gallon). FOB Santos, Brazil anhydrous ethanol prices were higher last week; they are down in early week trading, falling 0.3 percent to 58.1 cents/liter (219.94 cents/gallon) through Tuesday’s close.
The FOB Gulf-Santos, Brazil ethanol spread has narrowed from last week’s close through Tuesday’s trading and is currently at -9.28 cents/liter (-35.15 cents/gallon).
MTBE prices rose 3.9 percent last week and were steady/higher in early week trading to gain 0.1 percent from Friday’s close through Tuesday’s trading. MTBE’s premium to FOB Houston ethanol has decreased from last week’s report and stands at 6.3 cents/liter (23.86 cents/gallon).
BTX component prices were sharply lower last week but were mixed/lower through Tuesday’s market close: Benzene was up 0.3 percent while Toluene was down 1.4 percent, and Xylene was down 1.1 percent. The estimated weighted average aromatic price is currently 72.94 cents/liter (276.12 cents/gallon), down from last Friday’s close. The BTX-Houston ethanol spread narrowed last week, and the weighted average BTX price is 24.12 cents/liter (91.32 cents/gallon) higher than the FOB Houston ethanol price.
Gasoline and petroleum products were lower last week but reversed that trend in early week trade. RBOB futures are up 1.3 percent to start the week while FOB Prices for 87 CBOB and 87 conventional gasoline are up 1.4 and up 1 percent, respectively. WTI futures are 0.8 percent lower at $62.3/barrel while Brent futures are up 0.7 percent to $66.28/barrel, from Friday through Tuesday’s close.
Liquid tanker rates are 7 percent higher on average this week with offers for the U.S. Gulf to South Brazil seeing the largest gains (up 21 percent). Freight from Brazil to China saw the largest declines and is down 9 percent from last week. On average, tanker freight from the U.S. Gulf is up 12 percent this week while freight from the PNW has posted a 6 percent increase. Liquid tanker freight rates from Brazil are down 5 percent, on average, this week. Freight rates across all origins are 4 percent higher than this same week in 2024.
On a cost-and-freight (C&F) basis, offers are mostly higher this week as higher freight rates offset lower FOB offers for ethanol. Prices for ethanol C&F to Central America from the U.S. Gulf are up 0.5 percent this week and are down 2.9 percent from this same week in 2024. Values for PNW ethanol to Southeast Asia average $728.68/MT this week, down 0.3 percent from the prior week and down 0.8 percent year-over-year. That compares to U.S. Gulf to Southeast Asia C&F prices that average $687.78/MT and are up 0.4 percent from last week but are down 3.5 percent year-over-year. C&F prices for Brazilian ethanol to Southeast Asia are down 0.5 percent from last week.
